- Some of Putin’s global partners expressed concern last week about his war in Ukraine.
- A few days later, Putin escalated the war by announcing military mobilization and threatening nuclear war.
- A Russian expert told Insider Putin that he may have acted out of fear of strained relations with countries like China and India.
Russian President Vladimir Putin escalated his unprovoked war on Ukraine this week, just days after some of his alleged allies publicly cast doubt on it – and the events may well be related.
Since invading Ukraine in February, Russia has been shunned by much of the world and faced severe sanctions from the West. But as Russia became more isolated, some nations either stood by Putin or avoided condemning him outright.
China and India have both been Russia’s powerful partner throughout the war, defying the Institute’s sanctions and Continuing to purchase the country’s energy products, However, recently the leaders of both the countries took the rare step of speaking out against the war.
during Meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Uzbekistan On 15 September, Putin acknowledged that Xi had “questions and concerns” regarding the war. next day, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi criticized the war During a face-to-face meeting with Putin.
Modi told Putin, “I know today’s era is not the era of war and I have spoken to you on the phone about it.” Reuters reported,
Putin replied: “I know about your position on the conflict in Ukraine, and I know about your concerns. We want it all to end as soon as possible.”
Less than a week later, on Wednesday, Putin said he was calling on 300,000 reservists to join the fight, something he had avoided for fear of backlash among the Russian people. The announcement, in which he also threatened the use of nuclear weapons, comes after the Ukrainian military made major advances in recent weeks.
Experts tell Insider it will be weeks or months before mobilized troops are trained, equipped and deployed. He also said that Putin’s decision to act now shows how bad the war was going for Russia and How desperate were the Russian leaders to turn the tide.
“That Putin would do this shows how badly he feels right now to change the momentum, which has been in Ukraine’s favor,” said Daniel Trezman, a professor at the University of California, Los Angeles, whose work focused on Russian politics. and economics, told the insider.
According to Robert English, a professor at the University of Southern California who studies Russia, the Soviet Union, Putin was also motivated by concerns about Xi and Modi – and the fear of losing key partners. Their fear and Eastern Europe.
“The evidence for criticism from allies like China or neutral states like India clearly put more pressure on them,” English told Insider. He said the leaders of those countries seem to have told Putin that they do not accept Ukraine’s position because it is hurting his reputation on the world stage and hurting him financially and politically.
The English said they suspected Putin had heard: “‘Find some way to end this war quickly to settle it, because we will not be by your side for the next six months of this brutality.'”
“He heard a message like this, so he’s trying to move on,” said English. “He’s trying to change the military balance in the best way he can.”
If Putin has mobilized troops in an effort to end the war as quickly as he has assured Modi he would like to do, it is not at all clear whether it will be successful.
“This is an unsatisfactory and inadequate response to the motivation, manpower and material on the Ukrainian side,” said English, explaining Military allies and intelligence from the West have given Ukraine an advantage on the battlefield, “It will not work.”